James Gunn’s Superman (2025) might be soaring at the box office with $570 million worldwide from a rumoured $225 million budget, but it’s not exactly lighting up DC or Warner Bros.’ record books. That hasn’t stopped box office analyst Luiz Fernando from making one of the spiciest predictions of the year: he thinks Supergirl will outgross Spider-Man: Brand New Day when they face off in the summer of 2026.
If that sounds familiar, it’s because Fernando is drawing a direct line back to summer 2017. Back then, Wonder Woman and Spider-Man: Homecoming landed in cinemas five weeks apart. Gal Gadot’s Diana, fresh from her Batman v Superman cameo, debuted with $106 million and went on to gross $412.8 million in the U.S., beating out every summer release that year with $824 million at the box office. Meanwhile, Tom Holland’s Spidey swung in at $335 million domestically and $880.2 million worldwide, his best box office outing at the time.
Fernando points out that Supergirl is in a similar position to Wonder Woman. She’s hitting theatres on June 26, 2026 — her first solo film in over four decades after the 1984 disaster that made just $14.3 million (from a $35 million budget). Like Diana, she’ll be fresh from a cameo in a major superhero movie (James Gunn’s Superman). Then, just five weeks later, Brand New Day arrives on July 31, with Holland fully entrenched as Spider-Man after No Way Home’s $1.921 billion run.
The competition won’t be light either. Both Wonder Woman and Supergirl have had to navigate Pixar (Cars 3 then, Toy Story 5 now), Illumination (Despicable Me 3 then, Minions 3 now), Christopher Nolan epics (Dunkirk then, The Odyssey now), and a live-action Disney tentpole (none in 2017, but Moana joins the fray this time).
Fernando believes the secret to Wonder Woman’s success was winning over women — 52% of its audience was female, a rarity for action films. That audience didn’t just show up once; they returned, often in groups, and convinced others to come along. That kind of repeat viewing gave the film remarkable staying power. For Supergirl, the plan could be the same: get the fanboys and the casual female moviegoers. And yes, casting Jason Momoa as Lobo probably wasn’t an accident. Moms who “took their kids to see Aquaman for the plot” might show up again.
But the 2026 landscape is tougher. Theatrical windows have shrunk to 45 days, meaning audiences can just as easily wait for a digital release. Female-led superhero films also face louder online criticism than they did in 2017, thanks to post-Captain Marvel culture wars.
While expecting Supergirl to replicate Wonder Woman’s historic run (or beat Spider-Man 4 at the box office) might be unrealistic, it could still perform strongly. The film has wrapped shooting and now has a full year to polish effects and, inevitably, shoot a few pickups. Early fan chatter suggests more excitement for her return than for David Corenswet’s Superman. Whether that translates into box office glory against Marvel’s friendly neighborhood juggernaut? That’s the billion-dollar question.
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