Can the upcoming Michael Jackson biopic, aptly titled Michael, manage to score big at the box office? We certainly think so, even to the point that it may finally reach the elusive billion-dollar club, the significant box office amount for such a genre that has yet to break the ceiling. Bohemian Rhapsody, which detailed the rise of Freddie Mercury (Rami Malek, in his Oscar-winning performance) and his legendary rock band Queen, did come close to reaching that milestone after earning an outstanding $910.8 million worldwide.
Released in 2018, the movie still holds the distinction of being the top moneymaker for the music biopic, even as recent outings exploring big names such as Elvis (Elvis Presley) and Rocketman (Elton John) couldn’t match the mark set by Bohemian Rhapsody.
Michael has been long in the making, going back to 2019, a decade after the King of Pop unfortunately passed away at the age of 50. It was Graham King, the acclaimed producer behind The Departed and, of course, Bohemian Rhapsody, who secured the rights from the Michael Jackson estate, authorizing him to make the biopic. The rest, as they say, is history, despite undergoing production woes, notably the whole reshoots for the third act.
With a production budget of $155 million, an opening weekend north of $70 million and above during the first three days would be ideal. At the time of writing, Boxoffice Pro’s current long-range forecast projected Michael may hit between $80 million and $90 million.
So, back to the possibility of hitting the billion-dollar grosses, here are the reasons why Michael will rule the worldwide box office big-time.
Why Michael Jackson’s Legacy Still Dominates Global Pop Culture
Once upon a time, Michael Jackson was the biggest pop star ever seen in the history of music. From his solo breakthrough on the 1979’s Off the Wall album to the 1980s dominance, notably his record-setting 1982’s Thriller, he has reigned supreme from the music charts to MTV, album sales, and sold-out concert tickets around the world. Most of his songs, from Billie Jean to Thriller, transcend time, even redefining modern pop music that remains relevant in today’s era.
His influence continues to live on even after his death, with today’s artists like Bruno Mars, The Weeknd, and Doja Cat sharing the late King of Pop’s DNA in different capacities in terms of performances, vocal delivery, and artistic style. His music videos weren’t just music videos, but rather something cinematic with the kind of visual storytelling that was ahead of their time.
If that’s not enough, there are countless performers worldwide, from professional artists to online imitators seen on YouTube and TikTok channels, who imitate Michael’s signature moves (the iconic moonwalk dance) and distinct looks (the military jacket, sequined glove, and fedora hat).
Michael Biopic Trailer Breaks Records With Massive 24-Hour View Count
According to Billboard, the teaser trailer for Michael debuted last November, scaling over 116.2 million views within its first 24 hours. It broke the record as the most-viewed trailer of all time for a music biopic and even set a milestone for Lionsgate as the studio’s biggest trailer launch ever seen. Not to mention it’s bigger than Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, which previously held the record at 96.1 million views. This proves the relevancy of the late King of Pop still matters for both fans and audiences, with the teaser trailer sparking sizable interest in anticipating the upcoming biopic.
Michael Jackson’s Global Fanbase Could Power a Billion-Dollar Box Office Run
Michael Jackson’s popularity wasn’t just restricted to the U.S. He had a huge global fanbase, gaining wider recognition from Asia to Latin America and Europe. Lionsgate even took this as an opportunity to release the biopic worldwide, with countries like the Philippines and Sweden set to open two days earlier than the official U.S. release date. Given today’s box office climate, a movie’s success these days isn’t just about how much it would make in the stateside, since the overall worldwide grosses play a significant part as well. With a massive built-in audience alone, Michael has won half the battle.
How Nostalgia Could Drive Massive Ticket Sales for the Michael Biopic
Movies that either build or rely on nostalgia factors may sound like a broken record. But when they were done right, you get something deeply resonant like Bohemian Rhapsody, which successfully appeals to both older and younger generations. You could say the same thing for Michael, where the late King of Pop’s cross-generational pull can bring in big numbers to attract older and younger demographics. Watching Michael on the big screen would bring back the good old memories, from the songs to the performances, that are best seen as a communal experience.
Strategic Release Date Gives Michael Biopic a Clear Box Office Advantage
Imagine if Lionsgate chose to date Michael during the crowded summer movie season. That would limit its chance to reach the billion-dollar milestone. Ditto for the fall launch, assuming it follows Bohemian Rhapsody’s release date pattern, same as November, where Michael would have to battle against stiff competitors such as The Cat in the Hat and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping. Releasing Michael in April allows sufficient room for this biopic to rake in as much money as possible, especially since it has little competition to worry about. Even with Lee Cronin’s The Mummy releasing a week prior, Warner Bros.’ upcoming horror reboot would probably be frontloaded in the opening weekend.
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